In Work Package 4, Emerging Technologies were scanned for their security implications in a 10 to 20 years’ timeframe. Implications were taken into account regarding future high risk/high pay-off opportunities (main focus), but also of future threats (secondary focus).
Three methods to scan for Emerging Technologies were performed in a parallel fashion:
Fraunhofer INT exploited its broad technological knowhow gained from e.g. the Defence Technology Forecast, a comprehensive description of technological developments with relevance to defence use.
Isdefe applied a technique originally established for the Spanish Ministry of Defence to prepare a further independent list of Emerging Technologies with security implications.
AIT used bibliometrics for the survey, exploiting a broad range of scientific articles in electronic databases using their inhouse developed software BibTechMon.
A comparative analysis of the results of these three methods was then performed. To the best of our knowledge, such a broad integration of methods and results has never been attempted before in the field of security research. Furthermore, a novel method for the priorisation of technologies based on the Weighted-Bit Assessment Method (WBAM) was introduced and applied.