Emerging Technologies identified to be most relevant in WP 4 will be further analysed in WP 5. These in-depth analyses will mainly be carried out by experts of consortium members, with external specialist asked for highly specific input.9 These analyses will not only include technical aspects, but also economic questions like future market potential. Furthermore, ethical aspects of the introduction of these novel technologies will be analysed by CSSC, who also provides an “ethical helpdesk” that can be consulted by all other Consortium Partners.
Some preparations for the 2nd Consultation Campaign will be located in WP 4, too. As indicated above, the 2nd Consultation Campaign draws it technical experts and end-users from the database created as the last step of the expert recruitment process (number4 in scheme 4). The 2nd Consultation Campaign is characterised by the parallel execution of three methods of expert involvement (Scheme 9):
- a workshop methodology based on the Weighted Bit Assessment Method (WBAM, Fraunhofer INT),
- an adapted Disruptive Technology Assessment Game (DTAG, TNO), and
- a scenario based method (Fraunhofer ISI).
Again, very different methods to assess future developments are applied in a parallel way to enable methodological comparison. The parallel execution of these methods has yet another advantage: Both the WBAM and the DTAG are highly innovative and have never been tried before in the context of assessing technologies for civil security. As the risk of failure is thus inherent to both, they are combined with the well established scenario method to make sure that even in the worst case input of sufficient quality is produced for the further proceeding of the ETCETERA project.
While the WBAM is closely associated with strand 1 “Critical Technologies”, the scenario based method and the DTAG are integrated in strand 2 “Emerging Technologies”. As far as possible, results will also be used in the other strand, respectively.