In WP 4, Emerging Technologies will be scanned for their security implications in 10 to 20 years time. These implications might have the form of future high risk/high pay-off opportunities (main focus), but also of future threats (secondary focus). The main source of information for the implementation of this task is technical and methodological expertise within the ETCETERA consortium.
Three methods to scan Emerging Technologies will be performed in a parallel fashion:
- AIT will use bibliometric methods for the survey. A broad range of sources will be electronically exploited to identify relevant information using AIT’s BibTechMon approach. This includes a diffusion model that will classify technologies in different diffusion stages by growth characteristics and other indicators and pathways of keywords through diffusion stages over time periods. Its strength is early identification of new dynamic issues in science.
- Fraunhofer INT will exploit its broad technological knowhow gained from activities like the Overall Technology Forecast and the Defence Technology Forecast, a comprehensive description of technological developments with relevance to defence use. An interdisciplinary team of scientists at Fraunhofer INT with different fields of expertise will assess the development of emerging technologies and compile a second list of relevant technologies.
- Isdefe will apply its proprietary technique based on an in-house core team of technology experts augmented by external experts to prepare a further independent list of Emerging Technologies with security implications.
These methods are very different from each other. This, and the fact that they are employed by entities with vast experience in their use, guarantees the widest possible scope for the technology scan.
A comparative analysis of the results of these three methods will then be performed. To the best of our knowledge, such a broad integration of methods and results has never been attempted before in the field of security research. The harmonised results will be the basis of the “List of Emerging Technologies with security implications”, with results from the 1st Consultation Campaign being taken into consideration.
Furthermore, there will be an explorative task in WP 4 that aims at developing a novel method for this kind of technology scanning, using the best properties of the three methods employed.
A report on the scanning for emerging technologies with three different methods, including a provisional list of emerging technologies for security purposes, will be issued